Rugby betting is inherently easier than football betting. As more points are scored the chance for an upset is very low. Draws rarely occur so really its just betting on 2 outcomes. The odds generally reflect this, for example, New Zealand to beat Scotland was 1/100.
The big money is in handicaps. The bookie sets a handicap, say in the case of New Zealand / Scotland; Scotland would probably get a 50 point head start. So if the game finished 55 – 7, you’d win the handicap bet if you went with the Scots. Odds are usually 10/11 for both teams and 17/1 for the handicap draw. The bookie makes on the over round (ignoring the draw option, he’s paying less than even money for an even money bet).
The bookie to some extent sets the handicap to reflect the likely points difference. However, this is not the main thing on the bookies mind. As he makes on the over round, it’s in his best interest to set the handicap at a value that will ensure he gets bets on both sides. That’s why you get some really stupid handicaps.
In the world cup 2007, England got a 11 point head start against South Africa (in the first game) when the book opened at Ladbrokes. Anyone who read the match reports could see that South Africa were going to hammer England. By kick off the handicap had moved to about 17 but still that was still too low. England duly got hammered and all patriots lost money.
The main advantage the punter has over the bookie is the fact the book has to set the handicap and the punter can pass if its too close. For example in the final of the world cup 2007 the handicap was generally -9 points for South Africa to beat England in the final. This ended up being spot on. Personally, I skipped this as it was way too close to the expected outcome.
So there you have it, an introduction to rugby betting handicaps and why its a potential gold mine for the clued up punter.
Ben writes football betting tips, casino and poker articles for the KLS gambling group.